美国互联网2020年展望

下面是小编为大家整理的美国互联网2020年展望,供大家参考。

　 US Internet 2020 Outlook Doug Anmuth AC

　(212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

　North America Equity Research December 2019

　Cory Carpenter (212) 270-8125 cory.carpenter@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

　Dae Lee, CFA (415) 315-8500 dae.k.lee@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

　Neeraj Kookada, CFA (212) 622-8980 neeraj.s.kookada@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

　Ryder Cleary (212) 622-1011 ryder.cleary@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

　See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

　Key Themes in 2020

　 Best Ideas in 2020

　 Appendix: Comps & Industry Models

　2 Recap of 2019 1

　2

　3

　4

　• JPM Internet Coverage Universe Average: +45.3% • JPM Coverage Market-Cap Weighted Average: +29.8% • S&P 500: +27.3%

　 Mega Cap +33% Large Cap +48% Mid Cap +3% Small Cap +108% Source: Bloomberg as of 12/16/19 close. Based on current market cap. Note: Mega Cap: >= $200B; Large Cap: $20-200B; Mid Cap: $2-20B; Small Cap: <= $2B.

　On Average, US Internets Are Outperforming the S&P 500 Year-to-Date… …But Looking at Individual Stock Performance, Only 1/3 rd Are Ahead of the S&P 500 717% From 12/31/2018 to 12/16/2019 444% 174% 71% 69% 51% 50%

　35% 33% 30% 27% 26%

　 23%

　 18%

　 16%

　 14%

　9% 8% 8% 1% -3% -4% -18% -24% -29% -33% -34% -44% -45% -45% -48% -49% 27% 30% 45% Performance by Mkt Cap Size EVER CDLX SNAP FTDR MTCH FB SFIX Internet Avg CHGG SPOT GOOGL Mkt Cap WAvg CHWY SPX Index EBAY IAC AMZN BKNG NFLX FVRR PTON TWTR EXPE YELP PINS GRPN CRTO EB LYFT CRCM TRUE FTCH TRIP ANGI TRVG

　 US Internets Broadly Tracked the S&P 500 Through 2019…

　 • Front-end loaded stock performance • Multiple new issues • Bifurcated SMid-cap performance • Broader market rotation from growth to value • Secular trends remained strong across ads & e-comm, but softer in travel • Recent IPOs pressured as focus shifted to profitability & lock-up expirations • Incumbents fighting back in retail & streaming • Increased regulatory & antitrust scrutiny in the US & EU

　50%

　 40%

　 30%

　 4Q18 EPS

　 1Q19 EPS

　 2Q19 EPS

　 3Q19 EPS

　 +45%

　 +30% +27%

　20%

　 10%

　 0% Jan 1st

　 Feb 1st Mar 1st Apr 1st

　 May 1st

　 Jun 1st Jul 1st

　 Aug 1st Sep 1st Oct 1st

　 Nov 1st

　 JPM Internet Average JPM Internet Market Cap Wavg S&P 500

　 Dec 1st

　Recap of 2019

　Best Ideas in 2020

　 Appendix: Comps & Industry Models Key Themes in 2020 2

　1

　3

　4

　 Top 8 Internet Themes in 2020

　 1 Mega-Cap Platform Diversification Continues

　2 Streaming Competition Cuts the Cord & Grows the Pie

　3 Advertising in Quadrennial Year

　4 Ecommercification Everywhere

　5 The Next Phase of Public Cloud Competition

　6 2020: The Year of the 2019 IPO

　7 Regulatory Scrutiny Continues

　8 2020 Election Impacts

　 Amazon Retail $270B, 81%

　Amazon: Most Diversified Across Revenue & Profit Amazon 2020E Net Sales $332B, +19% FXN Y/Y

　Alphabet 2020E Gross Revenue $192B, +18% FXHN Y/Y

　AWS $45B, 14%

　Ads $16B, 5%

　Google Advertising (incl. YouTube) $158B, 82%

　YouTube 2

　~$31B, 16%

　 Amazon 2020E Operating Income

　Other Bets $0.7B, 0.4% Google Other $33B, 17%

　 Amazon Retail 10% of OI AWS 57% of OI

　 Ads 1

　33% of OI

　Source: Company reports & J.P. Morgan estimates Note: 1) Assumes 40% Ads Operating Income Margin. Source: Company reports & J.P. Morgan estimates Note: 2) YouTube subscription revenue is included in Google Other. Alphabet: Diversification From Ads Still Early, But A Number of L-T Bets Higher Penetration Levels, Large User Bases, and Corporate Technical / Product Expertise Are Pushing Large Platforms to Diversify Their Revenue Streams Facebook: Trying to Move Beyond Advertising Facebook 2020E Revenue $87B, +23% FXN Y/Y

　Facebook Advertising $86B, 99% Payments & Other Fees $1B, 1% • Payment fees from developers • Hardware devices FB Family of Apps = 2.8B MAUs Core FB 2.4B 

　FB Stories 500M+ DAUs 

　FB Watch 720M MAUs Instagram 1.0B+ 

　IG Stories 500M+ DAUs 

　IG TV 

　Threads Messenger 1.3B+ 

　Messenger ads 

　B2C interactions WhatsApp 1.5B+ 

　WA Status 500M+ DAUs 

　B2C interactions Newer Initiatives  IG Shopping & Checkout  Facebook Pay

　 Blockchain (Calibra)  AR/VR (Oculus)  Hardware Source: Company reports & J.P. Morgan estimates 7 • Waymo • Loon • Access • Wing • Verily • GV 9 Products w/1B+ Monthly Users  Search  YouTube (2B+ monthly logged in)  Maps  Android (2.5B+ active devices WW)  Gmail  Google Drive (1B+ reached in ‘18)  Play  Google Photo (1B+ reached in ‘19)  Chrome • Cloud (~$14B) • Play • Hardware • Stadia

　Streaming Wars Drive Accelerating US Linear PayTV Subscriber Declines… 96M 96M 95M US PayTV Video Subs 91M Y/Y Change (0.7%) (0.7%) (1.0%)

　86M 82M 79M 75M 72M 68M (4.2%) (4.2%) (4.8%) (4.7%)

　(4.6%) (4.7%) (5.0%)

　…While the DTC Streaming Pie Grows, w/NFLX Well Positioned Given Its Scale & Content US Price Netflix $8.99-$15.99 Content Spend in 2020 1

　~$17B

　Global Subs Disney+ Amazon Prime Video Hulu $6.99/month 2

　$69/year

　 $8.99 3

　$5.99 (Ads)

　$11.99

　~$2.5B

　4

　~$7.5B

　 ~$3B

　158M

　258M JPMe in 2023

　10M+ 7

　Target: 60M-90M in FY24 100M+

　Prime subs w/ access 8

　28.5M

　HBO Max $14.99

　~$5B 5

　Target: 75M-90M in 2025

　Peacock TBD

　~$800M+ 6

　-

　~$1B

　2M JPMe in FY20

　101M JPMe in FY25

　2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

　 Ad & Sub

　% US Home 81% Penetration 79% 77% 74% 70% 66% 63% 59% 56% 53%

　Apple TV+ $4.99

　 Source: J.P. Morgan Telecom Services / Cable & Satellite analyst Phil Cusick. Note: Linear PayTV includes legacy video + vMVPD subscribers (i.e. Sling TV, Hulu Live, YouTube TV).

　Key Takeaways Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: 1) Cash content spend, where available; 2) Disney+ available $12.99/month bundled w/ Hulu (ads version) & ESPN+; 3) Included with Amazon Prime subscription, which costs $119/year or $12.99/month; 4) Includes original cash spend that is a little over $1B in FY20 and licensed content expense less than $1.5B; 5) Includes ~$3B HBO spend and ~$1.5B-$2B incremental HBO Max spend; 6) Excludes intercompany content from Comcast owned properties; 7) Announced 11/13 & includes free trials; 8) Includes AMZN Prime subs, though not all utilize Prime Video. • Disney, AT&T/HBO, Comcast, & Apple joining the streaming wars should accelerate cord cutting…JPM projects US linear PayTV subs to decline ~5% Y/Y in 2020, w/PayTV home penetration approaching 50% in 2025 • DIS+ is the standout new entrant, with 10M+ subs at launch and growing...but not an either/or option w/NFLX • NFLX remains the clear overall leader & is well positioned, w/ its ~$17B content spend in 2020 greater than the 4 new entrants combined—DIS+, HBO Max, Peacock, & Apple TV+…& 50%+ of NFLX spend is on originals • Streaming platforms, including NFLX, should ultimately benefit as more consumers shift to DTC subscriptions • We project NFLX net adds of ~27M in 2020, in-line with 2019, w/NFLX surpassing 200M global subs in 2021 8

　+14% Y/Y +7% Y/Y

　Non-Digital Ad $ $663B $712B

　GOOGL $123B, 33%

　FB $86B, 23%

　AMZN $16B, 4%

　 Digital Ad $

　 2019E

　 2020E

　 Other Online incl. BABA Source: eMarketer, October 2019

　Key Takeaways $152B, 40% Source: J. P. Morgan estimates, eMarketer, October 2019 • 2020 quadrennial events are expected to bring in $7B+ in ad spend 1

　• 2020 US Presidential Election & political ad spend expected to total $6B+ 1 , w/the majority of spend still going to TV and other offline media • Online Ad platforms have taken a varied stance on political ads: 1) Twitter banning all political ads; 2) Google limiting targeting; & 3) Facebook intervening least, but with greater security & protection • Other quadrennial events, incl. Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics & Euro 2020, could benefit online platforms more given their global reach & time-zone differences

　Source: NYT, UEFA.com, Olympic.org, eMarketer, and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: 1) Based on Kantar Media, Magna Global, Group M, Zenith, and BIA Advisory estimates. While Copa América is a quadrennial event, we exclude from the list because 2020 is 9 the first year of the event being held in even-numbered years, and the last event was held in 2019. 2020E Global Online Ads Share Global Advertising 2020 Events Timeline +0.4% Y/Y US Presidential Election Primaries & Caucuses EURO 2020

　Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics Presidential Debates Election Day

　 $330B

　 $333B

　 $377B

　 $335B

　OCT

　 NOV

　 DEC

　JUL

　 AUG

　 SEPT

　APR

　 MAY

　 JUN

　JAN

　 FEB

　 MAR 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q

　Source: comScore, J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: worldpay Global Payments Report, 2018.

　Opportunity for Facebook Pay

　• Facebook Pay initially rolled out in US on Facebook & Messenger, and will gradually be made available on Instagram and WhatsApp • Initial use cases incl. fundraisers, in-game purchases, event tickets, P2P payments on Messenger, and purchases from select Pages and businesses on FB Marketplace • FB’s 200M+ US&C MAUs could drive significant usage of the P2P channel • Currently, US P2P users stand at ~70M, driving $310B in P2P Payment transaction value • Over time, we expect Facebook Pay to scale across FB’s global audience of 2.8B, & enable cross-border P2P as well as ecommerce

　10 P2P Mobile Payment Transaction

　Value

　Y/Y Growth

　2021

　2020

　2019

　20%

　 0%

　2018

　40%

　$220

　60%

　80%

　$396

　$310

　$479

　80%

　100%

　$600

　$500

　$400

　$300

　$200

　$100

　$0

　2018 2019 2020 2021 Zelle Venmo Square Cash

　64

　69

　74

　78

　US P2P Payment Transactions US P2P Mobile Payment Users US P2P Mobile Payment Market 27

　35

　 43

　 50

　23

　27

　15

　31

　19

　35

　22

　24

　 41%

　28%

　 21%

　Others 27% Credit Card 34% Others 21% Credit Card 27% Debit Card 19% eWallet 20% Debit Card 19% eWallet 33% • wo...